Middlesbrough v. Crystal Palace (Carabao Cup)

Middlesbrough has experienced a very up and down history, in fact, they have nearly as many seasons in the 2nd league as the top tier (45 and 61, respectively). Middlesbrough has been making a strong statement to come back to top-flight soccer. They finished in 5th place last season and qualified for the play off when they lost to Aston Villa in the first playoff round. This season marks Tony Pulis’ first full season in charge of the club, and so far they are sitting at third in the Championship table. At the end of the 2016-2017 Middlesbrough was relegated from the Premier League, and although they missed promotion back on the first ask, they seem reasonably well positioned to make a reasonable run for return. Through 15 games, Middlesborough has gotten 27 points with a goal difference of +9. They haven’t been prolific scorers, but they have conceded 3 goals less than the next best team, and about ½ of what the other top teams have conceded.

Crystal Palace, much like Middlesbrough, has had a varied history about which tier they’ve been in. Palace’s most recent promotion from the Championship came as a result of winning the promotion playoff place in 2012-2013, guaranteeing them Premier League soccer in 2013-2014. Since then, they’ve been able to successfully maintain midtable position, and if they can get onto a little better run of form I think it could happen again. Crystal Palace has gotten off to a rough start this year, securing only 8 points in 10 games with a -6 goal differential. Crystal Palace has struggled to score goals with only 7 scored on the season (2 of which came in their most recent match as part of a 2-2 draw with Arsenal). Palace has had some injury struggles so far this season – with both Scott Dan (DC) and Christian Beneteke (ST) out for the foreseeable future.

Middlesbrough has showed fantastic defensive resolve conceding just over 0.5 goals/game on average in the League. As impressive as that goal average is, they’ve been even better at home conceding less than 0.4 goals/game. Although their goal scoring record is a much more reasonable number, when you concede that few goals it doesn’t take much to ensure a positive goal differential. They are scoring 1.1 goals/game on average in the League and only slightly less on the road (1).

Crystal Palace has a negative goal differential and this is clearly indicated by their scoring numbers, overall in the League they are scoring 0.7 goals/game and allowing 1.2 goals/game. Surprisingly they score more away from home, bringing that average to 1 goal/game, but they are still conceding an average of 1.2 goals/game.

Crystal Palace is favored in this matchup (at the time of this writing), but I think there’s a definite opportunity for Middlesbrough to make some noise against this Palace side that’s had a real issue scoring goals.

Last Update: October 30th, 2018

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