Weekend Preview on Thursday (Week 11) Part 1

Disclaimer: This series is examining the games days prior to matchday, there is always the possibility for injuries, coach selections, etc. They may be updated to reflect most accurate starting lineup.

AFC Bournemouth v. Manchester United

Location: Dean Court, Bournemouth

Manchester United are favorites even though they are traveling to Bournemouth. Expected goals is currently at 3, with United winning by 1.

Bournemouth are coming off a 3-0 victory over Fulham, and although Fulham received a 73′ minute red card, though most of the damage had already been done. Bournemouth were ahead 2-0 before the sending off. Bournemouth (home) are averaging 2 goals/game at home and are conceding an 1 goal/game.

Manchester United managed a win over Everton even after Pogba missed a penalty kick after a seemingly endless run up (though he did score on the rebound). Anthony Martial contributed another goal to the cause. Chris Smalling and Nemanja Matic’s performances left something to be desired — both picked up yellow cards and Smalling gave away a penalty to give Everton a glimmer of hope. Manchester United (away) are scoring on average 1.8 goals/game on the road and are conceding the exact same amount (1.8 goals/game).


Cardiff City v. Leicester City

Location: Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff, Wales

The Foxes are (unsurprisingly) favorites in this matchup in Wales. Goal projections is at 3, though current projections give Cardiff a reasonable chance to score (one).

Cardiff City managed to get one by the Liverpool defense but they shipped 4 goals. They still have a long way to go to prove they belong. Cardiff (home) is averaging 1.4 goals/game score at home (thanks to the 4 goal thumping of Fulham), but are conceding 2.4 goals/game (including a 5-0 demolition by Manchester City).

Leicester City are on a 3 game winless streak (2 losses and a draw). This could be a matchup that allows them to get back to winning ways. Leicester City (away) is averaging 1.6 goals scored/game while conceding 2 goals/game.


Everton v. Brighton & Hove Albion

Location: Goodison Park, Liverpool

Everton are home favorites over Brighton. Goal projections are at expected to be less than 3.

Everton probably should have been able to capitalize against Manchester United. They managed to have accuracy pretty much akin to a shotgun, including missing even keeping a shot on target with de Gea beat. Their attempts at scoring are reflected better on the scoresheet than in real life after converting only on a penalty given by Smalling. Everton (home) is averaging 1.8 goals/game at home while conceding 1 goal/game.

Brighton seem to be rounding into form, having won 3 straight matches after being beaten by Manchester City. If Brighton keep this up and they stay up — I hope Glenn Murray gets a nice bonus considering he’s scored 6 of their 11 goals. Brighton (away) is averaging a 0.6 goals/game and 1.4 conceding/game.


Newcastle United v. Watford
Location: St. James’ Park
Newcastle are just about favorites at home, although all the outcomes are firmly on the table. Goal predictions are less than three.
Newcastle haven’t won a match in 10 games though they do have 3 draws. Despite their awful record they are only three points from safety (…for now), and win might kindle some confidence. Newcastle (home) are averaging 0.5 goals/game scored and are conceding 1.67 goals/game.
Watford have pretty much kept on their scintillating early season form, though they have lost 3 matches. They reside in 7th place and I assume they’ll get another win here against Newcastle. Watford (away) is averaging 1.5 goals scored/game and conceding 1 goal/game.


West Ham United v. Burnley

Location: London Stadium

West Ham are firmly favorites at home to overwhelm Burnley. Goal projections are around two and seem to suggest West Ham could come away with a clean sheet.

West Ham, who despite losing six games and not having won a single match in October still reside midtable. They are sitting in 13th place (with Burnley two places lower). This may be an opportunity to put some space between themselves and the relegation favorites. West Ham (home) is scoring 0.8 goals/game and conceding 1 goal/game.

Burnley fall below West Ham in the standings only because of differential (they are 5 goals worse off than West Ham). Burnley (away) is averaging 1.2 goals scored/game and conceding on average 2.2 goals/game.

Last Updated: November 1, 2018

Leave a Comment