Middlesbrough v. Stoke City

Middlesbrough had a midweek upset of the Premier Leagues’s Crystal Palace on Wednesday. They’ve also just had their next round draw which revealed a matchup against League One’s Burton Albion in the fifth round. Leading into today’s match, the biggest question for me revolves around if Boro can stay focused instead of looking ahead. According to the league table, 3rd-ranked Boro should bring the game to 14th-ranked Stoke City (In our current Championship Power Rankings we have Boro at #3 and Stoke at #15). Both sides enter the match with good recent form and will look to continue that today.

Despite their table positions, Boro enters Stoke City’s Bet365 Stadium as underdogs in a matchup that’s expected to be very low scoring. While favored, Stoke isn’t favored by much and all three outcomes are not markedly different from an odds perspective.

Boro may be playing away at Stoke, but you can hardly notice any difference between their home and away form. Boro is tied for the most points taken from away games this season. They’ve earned 12 points on 7 away games and 15 points on 8 home games. If Middlesbrough have their way they love to make those records match, which depending on other results on the day could see them move as high as top of the league. I’m away fixtures, Boro is averaging 1.3 goals/game while conceding only 0.7 goals/game. If they’ve been reviewing the same stats I have, they’ll be itching to attack with serious intent between the 31′-60′ where fully half of Stoke’s concessions have occurred.

Stoke enter this match with abysmal home form, behind only the 3 teams in relegation standing (Reading, Hull, and Ipswich) and Bolton having secured only 10 points in 7 matches. Stokes goals scored and conceded at home are exactly same, with 1.14 on both. Stoke will face quite a challenge, even though they rank in the middle of the league in goals scored, as Boro have only conceded 8 goals overall, with only 3 allowed away from home.

Last Update: November 2nd, 2018

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