Disclaimer: This series is examining the games days prior to matchday. There is always the possibility for injuries, coach selections, etc. They may be updated to reflect most accurate starting lineup.
Weekend Preview on Thursday (#WPOT) Week 13,
Watford v. Liverpool
Location: Vicarage Road
Liverpool are sizable favorites in this matchup. So far, the expectation is that this game should have around 3 goals scored.
Watford’s blistering start has definitely cooled off a bit, they’ve lost 3 of the last 6 and drawn another. Their most recent was a 1-1 draw with a Southampton side currently residing in 17th place. The side have fallen down to 7th place in the table, tied with Manchester United and Burnley (on points). Watford will need to be especially aware of Liverpool’s penchant for scoring goals late in the first half (31′-45′). The home side has conceded 4 of their 8 concessions at home during that time. Watford is averaging 1.67 goals scored/per game and 1.33 goals conceded/per game at home. All signs indicate this should be a pretty good matchup.
Liverpool have drawn three of their last six games. Some space between Manchester City and the second-placed reds is starting to emerge. Liverpool did manage to beat Fulham with a 2-0 final score but Liverpool will want to start winning games to keep pace with City. Away from home Liverpool is averaging 1.5 goals scored/per game and 0.67 concessions/per game. Of particular importance is the number of goals conceded late, 76′ or later, while away totaling 3 of the 4 goals allowed. While Watford doesn’t have a major differential overall, they have scored 7 of their 10 home goals in the second half, 5 of those 7 coming after the 60′ minute. Liverpool will need to keep their composure here to ensure a result.
West Ham v. Manchester City
Location: London Stadium
There’s not really supposed to be any contest in this matchup with West Ham being decimated. Goal projections right now are around 4 and nothing is going the home team’s way.
West Ham season could be described in one word so far: inconsistent. To echo this point, their last 6 games include 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses. West Ham strengthened their side immeasurably over the off-season and rumors abound over a potential winter transfer move, but there’s still a long ways to go. At home the Hammers are averaging 1.33 goals scored/game and 1.17 goals conceded. Any points they can garner from this match would throw City off of setting the points record (again) and help West Ham move up in the table, that said — it’s no easy task.
Manchester City have been in blistering form this season, seemingly expanding on last seasons record-setting 100 point haul. If this season’s form continues, they are actually on pace to top even that. They have only allowed 1 concession while away from home so far on the season. To make matters worse for West Ham, they’ve scored 9 goals away from home for an average of 1.8 goals scored/game and 0.2 goals conceded/game.
Brighton v. Leicester
Location: Amex Stadium, Brighton
Leicester come in as slight favorites, but the lines seem to indicate that no result would really be a surprise. Goal projections in this one are coming in between 2-3.
Brighton has been very good at home with three wins, 1 draw, and a loss (to Tottenham by 1 goal) in their 5 home games so far this season. The draw is less impressive as it was against 20th-ranked Fulham, but they’ve managed to keep a positive goal differential even with the loss to Tottenham. At home, Brighton is averaging 1.6 goals scored per game and 1.2 goals conceded per game. This should give Brighton an advantage over a Leicester side that’s been all over the place alternating losses and wins when away.
Leicester currently reside in 10th-position in the table, bumpered by an above average points haul garnered from away games. That said, for away games they are only averaging 1.5 goals scored/game and 1.67 goals conceded/game and they own a negative goal differential. Leicester is still in touch with the top of the table and could make some substantial movement if they can get a win at Brighton in this match but if they stay true to their alternating form, they would be in line for a loss.
Everton v. Cardiff
Location: Goodison Park, Liverpool
Everton are heavy favorites in this match up at Goodison Park. Goal projections are hovering in the 3 goal-realm.
Everton has played very well at home, having garnered the 5th best home record (despite being 9th overall) with 13 points from 6 games. The reason they’ve fallen beneath that is road form, which has largely resulted in draws or losses (5 out of 6 games). Goodison park has been a safe haven for them, having lost to West Ham and drawn with Huddersfield. This has left them with an average home total of 2 goals scored/game and 1 concession/game. Couple the Everton strength at home with Cardiff City’s abysmal away form (good for 19th on away results) this should be a good day for the Toffees. I anticipate a win plus a few goals for the home side.
Cardiff City have only managed 1 point from five away games and they are (not so) proud owners of a -9 goal differential. While they currently sit in the relegation spaces, they are still within reach of safety with a few good results. Cardiff is averaging an atrocious 0.40 goals scored/game on the road and they are conceding 2.20 goals/game. This is not a recipe for a win away (or at home…) but it doesn’t appear to be setting up well for Cardiff in this one. They might have to try for a point, which would double their points tally on the road, and it would also help them get out of the relegation zone.
Fulham v. Southampton
Location: Craven Cottage
Fulham come in as slight favorites, but the lines don’t give them much of a backing. This is expected to be a 2-3 goal game, with it unlikely that either side will keep a clean sheet.
Fulham enter this match at the very bottom of the table on the back of poor home and away form. They have only garnered 5 points (2 lower than the next lowest side) and has a -20 goal differential. That said, of all the matchup possibilities, this might be one of their best opportunities to make their case for avoiding the drop. Both sides ship far more goals than they score, so we’ll either see zero goals, or a bunch. Fulham at home is averaging 1.2 goals scored/game and concessions of 2.60/game.
Southampton enter this match barely above the relegation zone solely because they have a slightly more positive goal differential than Cardiff. Don’t be fooled though, Cardiff has -14 goal differential and Southampton only has a marginally improved -13. They do, however, have substantially more points garnered from away games than Fulham. Southampton in away games so far this season are averaging 0.67 goals scored/game and concessions of 2.17/game. Don’t expect this one to be a defensive masterpiece even if no goals end up being scored.
Last Updated: November 21, 2018