Weekend Preview on Thursday (#WPOT) Week 13, Part 2

Disclaimer: This series is examining the games days prior to matchday. There is always the possibility for injuries, coach selections, etc. They may be updated to reflect most accurate starting lineup.

Weekend Preview on Thursday (#WPOT) Week 13, Part 2

Manchester United v. Crystal Palace

Location: Old Trafford, Manchester

Manchester United are surefire home-favorites over Crystal Palace. As a result, 3 Goals are expected at this time, and all three are supposed to go United’s way.

Manchester United’s lone defeat at home came from Tottenham, who won 3-0. Aside from the draw against Wolves, they’ve won the other 3 games. However, I know that United has been poor this season, but I don’t see any reason they can’t make it 4 wins at home. Even including the 3-0 home defeat to Tottenham, United are still even with goals scored and conceded at home. They are both 1.6 goals per game (scored and allowed), but I think the allowed are inflated. I think that United has the quality to win this match.

Crystal Palace has only managed to get 6 points from 6 away matches. They have 4 losses and 2 draws and they have conceded 3 more goals than they have scored. Palace has, on average, scored 0.9 goals per game away from home and conceded 1.5 goals per game. Neither of these things look great given that United’s defense has been poor, their offense hasn’t struggled to the same extent. David de Gea has also failed to maintain a clean sheet at home and this might be his first real opportunity.

Tottenham v. Chelsea

Location: Wembley Stadium

Chelsea have a slight edge in this one, although it’s expected to be a close game! This game is expected to be 2-3 goals, with each side likely to score.

Tottenham, surprisingly, has been very poor at home having secured only 6 points from 4 matches. They have garnered 21 points from their 8 away matches. Despite this rather strange occurrence, they are still averaging 1.25 goals scored/game and 1 goal conceded/game at home. Chelsea has only allowed 1 goal on the road so far this season, so the pressure is all on Tottenham if they want a result.

Chelsea have taken 13 points from 5 games on the road so far this season. On the road they are scoring 2.4 goals/game and a ridiculous 0.2 goals conceded/game on the road. Yes, you read that right 0.2 goals, they’ve only allowed 1 goal on the road, period. Barring some huge mistakes by a normally very reliable Chelsea side, I just don’t see this going any way other than for Chelsea.

AFC Bournemouth v. Arsenal

Location: Dean Court, Bournemouth

Arsenal are favorites despite being the away side at Dean Court. This match is supposed to yield 3 goals minimum, and maybe more.

Bournemouth has had very respectful home form winning half of their games. However, if Bournemouth wants to continue the fairytale that made them our Darkhorse selection they have a ways to go.  Bournemouth is conceding greater than 85% of their goals in the second half and almost half of those are scored in the final 15 minutes. Despite the substantial amount of late concessions, they are still averaging a healthy 1.83 goals scored/game and 1.17 conceded/game at home.

Arsenal haven’t lost on the road since facing Chelsea and Stamford Bridge. That match they lost 3-2 but they’ve scored a goal in 11-straight since that defeat. They’ve also avoided defeat for 10-straight matches. Arsenal are averaging 2.8 goals scored/game and are conceding only 1.8 goals/game. I know this sounds like a broken record, but after the first couple games with Unai Emery — they’ve been on a tear. I expect this to be a tight match up but I think Bournemouth probably will only salvage a point at best.

Wolves v. Huddersfield

Location: Molineux, Wolverhampton

Wolves are heavy favorites against relegation-threatened Huddersfield. This game is expected to produce 2-3 goals — and all are supposed to go Wolves way.

Wolves have been pretty middle of the road as far as home form this season. At home, they are averaging exactly the same numbers of goals scored and conceded, 1.8/game. I think that given the profligacy of the Huddersfield defense, I think that Wolves are likely to score a few to help increase their average.

Huddersfield have been terrible away from home, the only teams worse are Cardiff and Fulham. Huddersfield on the road is averaging only 0.8 goals scored/game (which is .25 goals/game better than at home), while conceding 2.8 goals/game. I am having a hard time seeing past the multiple goals that Huddersfield are expected to ship. I’m just not sure this team has the firepower to keep up with a free-scoring Wolves side.

Burnley v. Newcastle

Location: Turf Moor

Newcastle enter as slight favorites over the home side, though the line is far from convincing. The final game in this week’s slate is expected to have 2-3 goals with each side scoring.

Burnley is averaging just barely a point per game at home, which is basically what they are getting from their away games. Burnley will need to do better if they want to make any moves at all in the Premier League. Burnley is averaging 1.2 goals scored/game and 2 area allowing 2 concessions/game.

Newcastle has garnered 9 points from 12 games, and only 3 of those points came on the road. It took them 5 games to get those 3 points as they’ve got some of the worst away form in the league. Away from they are scoring 0.6 goals/game and they are allowing one goal against/game.

Last Updated: November 22, 2018

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